So, last week, whilst Americans such as myself were celebrating the Fourth of July, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was firing off some fireworks of its own. The reaction in the region was, needless to say, negative, with even the Republic of Korea suspending shipments of food aid to the DPRK, a big move, I assure you. Yet, despite President Bush’s best efforts, the world is not speaking with one voice over the missile tests. China and the ROK are not in the mood to further raise the DPRK’s ire. Reading about all of this, I asked myself, how long can a broken state last? A country like the DPRK, where the government seems much more interested in developing weapons than feeding its own people, and which has to resort to counterfeiting and laundering money for foreign currency is indeed broken. But how long can the system last? For years now we’ve been hearing about how the DPRK is on the brink of collapse. However, this has yet to pass, in part due to aid from China and the ROK, and such economic projects as the Kaesong Industrial Region (although its contribution is surely limited).
So what now? The Taepodong-2, which was the one failed missile test, would put all of Asia’s major economies within range of DPRK weapons. There is too much at stake to allow the DPRK to continue with its missile and nuclear programs. Besides being a threat to the region, it is also exporting its missile technology for lucre. How can the world engage the DPRK in such a way to better integrate it with the world community and stop it from developing WMDs? This is a very difficult question that really we’ve been wrangling with for years. The Bush administration I think is taking the right approach by insisting on the six party talks. And, it seems, the missile tests have been a reminder to the administration that it has some unfinished business. But speaking with one voice will take a lot of negotiation with China and the ROK. Is the administration up to that challenge? For the good of the region, I hope so.
Another thing is that these missile tests have piqued my interest in the so called “Gap Theory” expounded in Thomas Barnett’s “The Pentagon’s New Map.” I have yet to read it, but I think that is what I will tackle next. From what I understand, the Gap has been popping up all over the news, from the DPRK to Somalia. So, it will be interesting to read his take on the matter, and perhaps get to thinking a bit more deeply about broken states.